Global Macro Investing and Yield Curve Strategies
The Treasury yield curve is one of the best and most applicable tools that a global macro investor can have in his or her toolbox. Most of the time used for bond trading there are several applications for it in the stocks and currency market as well. The truth is by using the yield curve correctly you can better trade just about everything.
So what is the Treasury yield curve? It is the curve you get when you plot out the yields on different maturities of Treasury securities. For instance if you take the ninety day Treasury bill, the two year Treasury bill, five year Treasury note, ten year Treasury bond, and the thirty year Treasury bond you will get a curve. Usually sloping upwards from the bottom left to the upper right of the plot area, it can also take several other shapes. It can be very inverted with the far right down at the bottom and the far left at the top, it can have seemingly random lumps, and it can shift anywhere on the plot area. Each of these shapes and slopes of the yield curve tell the global macro investor something differently about the economy and the different trading instruments available to you.
So how do you apply the yield curve to your trading? Well there are a few main rules of thumb. An upwards sloping yield curve is typically bullish for the economy and stocks, whereas a downwards sloping or inverted yield curve is typically bullish for bonds.
You may be asking yourself why this is. The reasons are actually fairly simple and straightforward. If the curve is steep, meaning the short term rates are low and the long term rates are high it means that banks are lending as they are able to borrow short term from the Fed and charge long term rates to their customers. Obviously when business is good for the banks, they will be lending as much as they can. This in turn spurs new business spending as money is available.
If money is expensive then the economy will have a hard time expanding. If money is expensive for banks then they will not lend very much as they are not making money off of it. If money is cheap then the economy can grow easier as banks will lend and businesses will borrow more to expand and to spend.
Think of bonds and interest rates as a teeter totter where yields are on one side and bonds are on the other. If bonds go down, rates go up. If rates go down, bonds are going up. In a regular inflationary environment this is always the case unless there is a severe credit quality issue.
If this is the case then anytime you can forecast the yield curve to show when the Fed will be lowering rates you can jump on it and go long bonds, typically with little risk. At the same time whenever you see rates being lowered you can wait a while and then go long stocks.
Nothing is perfect and nothing works all the time. Any good global macro investor knows that to have long term success without blowing up you will need to use proper risk control gauges as well as other tools in your analysis. The yield curve is smart but it is not all knowing. - 23226
So what is the Treasury yield curve? It is the curve you get when you plot out the yields on different maturities of Treasury securities. For instance if you take the ninety day Treasury bill, the two year Treasury bill, five year Treasury note, ten year Treasury bond, and the thirty year Treasury bond you will get a curve. Usually sloping upwards from the bottom left to the upper right of the plot area, it can also take several other shapes. It can be very inverted with the far right down at the bottom and the far left at the top, it can have seemingly random lumps, and it can shift anywhere on the plot area. Each of these shapes and slopes of the yield curve tell the global macro investor something differently about the economy and the different trading instruments available to you.
So how do you apply the yield curve to your trading? Well there are a few main rules of thumb. An upwards sloping yield curve is typically bullish for the economy and stocks, whereas a downwards sloping or inverted yield curve is typically bullish for bonds.
You may be asking yourself why this is. The reasons are actually fairly simple and straightforward. If the curve is steep, meaning the short term rates are low and the long term rates are high it means that banks are lending as they are able to borrow short term from the Fed and charge long term rates to their customers. Obviously when business is good for the banks, they will be lending as much as they can. This in turn spurs new business spending as money is available.
If money is expensive then the economy will have a hard time expanding. If money is expensive for banks then they will not lend very much as they are not making money off of it. If money is cheap then the economy can grow easier as banks will lend and businesses will borrow more to expand and to spend.
Think of bonds and interest rates as a teeter totter where yields are on one side and bonds are on the other. If bonds go down, rates go up. If rates go down, bonds are going up. In a regular inflationary environment this is always the case unless there is a severe credit quality issue.
If this is the case then anytime you can forecast the yield curve to show when the Fed will be lowering rates you can jump on it and go long bonds, typically with little risk. At the same time whenever you see rates being lowered you can wait a while and then go long stocks.
Nothing is perfect and nothing works all the time. Any good global macro investor knows that to have long term success without blowing up you will need to use proper risk control gauges as well as other tools in your analysis. The yield curve is smart but it is not all knowing. - 23226
About the Author:
If you need actionable trading ideas then check out The Macro Trader Itis a weekly global macro trading advisory publication with frequent intra-week updates for time-critical analysis and actionable trading ideas.
posted by X - Men @ 2:18 AM
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