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Sunday, June 21, 2009

Jim Rogers On CNBC- I Have No Shorts

By Alejandro garcia

For the majority of his career, Jim Rogers has had both long and short positions. As of this interview, this is one of the few times Jim Rogers does not have a short position. Among the reasons for Jim not having any shorts is a possible currency crisis and thus should avoid shorting the market. Rogers typically holds both long and short positions, but his perception of global currencies' instability has led him to pull out all his shorts, he said. The last time he can remember doing so was before the market fiasco in 1987. Among other things Jim Rogers continues to be "wildly" bullish on China, "wildly" bullish on commodities. Specifically, Jim likes Silver over Gold, Natural Gas and Cotton.

"I would suspect that somewhere along the line...someone's going to say, 'I'm going to start selling mine before everybody else does,'" Rogers said. "That's when you have a currency crisis." But instead of pouring money into stocks, Rogers said investors should turn toward commodities. This sector will lead the recovery if the global economy improves, and if it doesn't, they'll still be the best place because of inflation, he said.

"I would suspect that somewhere along the line...someone's going to say, 'I'm going to start selling mine before everybody else does,'" Rogers said. "That's when you have a currency crisis." But instead of pouring money into stocks, Rogers said investors should turn toward commodities. This sector will lead the recovery if the global economy improves, and if it doesn't, they'll still be the best place because of inflation, he said.

The latest CNBC interview comes a day after Jim was interviewed by the Economic Times, in which he states how the type of Chinese companies he likes to invest in. Jim Rogers prefers Chinese companies that do little to no business in western economies that are going through economic hardship and thus are able to thrive in the Chinese economy.

If you sell to Wal-Mart in the US and if you are a Chinese supplier you know there is a problem. And you are going to be suffering. Any company that deals with the West is going to have problems. On the other hand, companies that are in the water-treatment business in Asia will care less if the West disappears. They are too busy making money, too busy going to work everyday. - 23226

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Follow Oil in Currency Trading

By Ahmad Hassam

If you want to become a good currency trader, then you need to understand that the forex markets evolve and change with time. You will need to make a little tweak here and a little tweak there sometimes in your trading strategies in order to continue making profit. As the currency markets evolve and change, your trading strategies should also evolve and adjust to these changes in the markets.

There will be periods of low returns or losses when your trading strategies need adjustment with the markets. But once you have made the adjustments to your trading strategies, you will start making profits again. Dont make the mistake of getting stuck with only one currency pair and one trading strategy. Always look at macroeconomic events and how different currency pairs react to these events.

Global economy runs on the supply of oil. You can say oil drives the global economy. High oil prices put pressures on the global economy. Inflation rises and fear of a recession starting mounts. Lets discuss a currency trading strategy. It depends on following oil prices in the global markets. Some countries export oil. There are many sources of oil. But most of the countries in the world import oil. So oil prices tend to affect almost all the currencies in the world. Some currency pairs react more strongly. Others currency pairs less so when oil prices change. When oil prices rise, they continue to rise for several months. Fortunately for you, oil prices tend to trend for months.

Likewise when oil prices decline, they tend to continue declining for several months. Last year in 2008, we saw a major upsurge in oil prices for several months then a sudden collapse, oil prices than stabilized around $55 for quite sometimes. Some of the currencies that react strongly to oil price changes are GBP and CAD. Lets focus on USD/CAD currency pair in our oil following strategy.

United States is the major importer of Canadian oil. The value of CAD increases with increase in oil prices in relationship to US Dollar (USD). Increase in oil prices means that the pair USD/CAD should start trending downward. This is a good example of a trend trading strategy.

Do you watch CNBC daily? You should watch for times when the oil prices are rising and the exchange rate USD/CAD is decreasing. Similarly, on CNBC look for times when oil prices decline and the exchange rate USD/CAD increases.

Use CCI (Commodity Channel Index) to trigger your trade. Watch for the 14 period CCI to cross above 100 and then cross back below 100. This tells you that the buyers have made a temporary upward push on the currency pair USD/CAD but was not able to turn the trend around.

Enter the trade. Set a limit order of 300 pips and a stop loss order of 75 pips. Go short on USD and long on CAD. This setup gives you a risk to reward ratio of 1:4. This risk to reward is very good and it allows you to be wrong a few times but without ruining your chances of being profitable. 300 pips mean $3000 profit and 75 pips means $750 loss if the trade goes against what you anticipated. Usually such a trade will continue for a month.

You can also look to trade the USD/CAD pair in the opposite direction if the oil prices start to decline. However, prolonged downtrend in the oil prices is usually unlikely. This trading strategy just depends on knowing which way the oil prices are moving right now so that you can take advantage of it. Oil prices have again started to climb and reached above $68. You can take advantage of the rising oil prices by trading USD/CAD pair as described above. - 23226

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What Are Reasons to Invest in the Stock Market?

By Gilbert Stockton

The stock market is a very popular way to invest. Many people make a lot of money in the stock market. Lets examine why this is so and why many people choose the stock market to invest in.

The stock market is a very valuable tool to people who want to save for retirement. The stock market can be risky in the short term but for many years your risks are cut substantially. This is why many young people choose to invest in the stock market.

When you start early it is a lot easier to turn a huge profit for a small amount of money. See the example of investing into Google and now what it is today.

A day trader is another way to invest in the stock market. A day trader trades shares day to day and is looking to make a profit in the short term. The stock market is very difficult to predict but you can make a lot of money if you predict trends correctly investing this way.

This is another viable strategy and has been used successfully by many people. If you don't know what you're doing, you could stand to lose a lot of money doing this. If you don't do your homework, you'll most likely just be guessing on what a stock will do. In this scenario you might as well go to Vegas and roll the dice. Your odds of success are similar.

The last thing about the stock market that is overlooked a lot of times is it is a fun way to invest. Picking a stock and watching it go up and down can make anyone anxious to know whats going to happen next. - 23226

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Making Money with Momentum

By Chris Blanchet

When it comes to security price momentum, many people will look at the general trend of a security without fully understanding the technical basis of the term. What Momentum really tells us, however, is whether the trend will continue or reverse. Without technical analysis and events like Momentum, many investors would buy high and sell low.

Understanding Momentum In some ways, Momentum is very similar to the MACD oscillator as it measures how much change a security's price has seen over a predetermined period of time. Understanding how technical analysis works on an unbiased, statistical level as well as using Momentum will allow investors to determine whether a systemic change in price is part of the normal up-and-down of the market, or if it is instead a strong bearish or bullish signal. Essentially, Momentum tells us whether a given price trend will continue or reverse.

More specifically, Momentum tells investors about the strength of the underlying price trend. Using this type of technical analysis allows investors to determine overbought and oversold conditions in a security and decide whether opening or closing a position is called for. Such decisions are normally impossible to make based on security prices alone.

Calculating Momentum One of the downfalls with technical analysis is that there is a heavy mathematical component to many of the events. While this not entirely true for Momentum, investors will need to understand the basic formula required to obtain a Momentum reading. Simply, Momentum is calculated by dividing the Closing Price by the Closing price ten periods ago, and multiplying it by 100. [Close/(Close 10 time-periods ago) * 100].

Trading on Momentum When it comes to executing trades based on Momentum, the reading is quite simple to understand. Values above 0 are bullish and values below 0 are bearish. A word of caution however is that extremely higher low values might suggest a continuation of the existing trend. In the case of a sell, investors are urged to trade only if prices peak and then begin to fall and not trade before they begin to fall.

As with most technical analysis, investors should never base entry or exit points solely on Momentum. In many cases, Momentum can serve as confirmation of other technical events or even underlying security fundamentals.

Since Momentum and many other events triggered by technical analysis rely heavily on mathematical calculations, trading software is recommended for the individual investor. Such software can monitor many different technical trends and some of the more advanced system will make buy and sell recommendations. - 23226

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Forex Swing Trading Is Available Online To Everyone Now

By Megan Rewards

One very profitable market where the only determinants are the demand & supply is the Forex market. This is more or less unaffected by any external agents. These markets have been criticized for catering only to one section of the society.

The Foreign exchange markets were the forte of the rich and were seldom in the reach of the lower strata of the society. The concept of these markets was such that one could not have the needed money to mint profits in these markets. Big shots like the central banks, the government and individuals with huge financial resources at their disposal only were capable of investing in these markets.

The world has undergone a tremendous change over the years. The dotcom boom has made sure every household has a computer and information spreads faster. These changes have also brought about a change in the thought process of people. As a result the Forex markets are being open to the larger populace. The changing investor band has also brought about a change in the type of transactions carried out as well. Some transactions are specific to certain band of investors now.

Forex market is all about guessing changes in the market movement and investing accordingly. A trend is characterized by the swing in market in accordance with time. Some times the change in trends can be so rapid that they would plummet and fall down in less than a day without long-term affect. A wise guess in such cases would fetch a fortune.

Every one who is investing in the Forex market is eligible to take the advantage of ups and downs in the market. However the big players do not indulge in day trading. They thrive on profitability in the existing market. They do not depend on changes in daily market for profits. Thus, the common man is at a better position to make good of the daily fluctuation in the market.

Constant observation is the key to success if one wants to take advantages of the daily fluctuations in the Forex market. This is where the internet comes into picture. Keeping oneself abreast of the market changes with a time gap of not more than a second is the basis for success in daily Forex trading. The internet does just the same and provides the user with the information without dely.

A global forex trader who relies on outdated modes of information like telephones and telex will certainly lag behind those who make use of the World Wide Web. Further, computer software program programmed with knowledge of foreign exchange ratios and tools quickly analyze the market condition to determine whether a swing is imminent or not. - 23226

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