Global Macro Investing and Yield Curve Strategies

By Peter Howard

The Treasury yield curve is one of the best and most applicable tools that a global macro investor can have in his or her toolbox. Most of the time used for bond trading there are several applications for it in the stocks and currency market as well. The truth is by using the yield curve correctly you can better trade just about everything.

So what is the Treasury yield curve? It is the curve you get when you plot out the yields on different maturities of Treasury securities. For instance if you take the ninety day Treasury bill, the two year Treasury bill, five year Treasury note, ten year Treasury bond, and the thirty year Treasury bond you will get a curve. Usually sloping upwards from the bottom left to the upper right of the plot area, it can also take several other shapes. It can be very inverted with the far right down at the bottom and the far left at the top, it can have seemingly random lumps, and it can shift anywhere on the plot area. Each of these shapes and slopes of the yield curve tell the global macro investor something differently about the economy and the different trading instruments available to you.

So how do you apply the yield curve to your trading? Well there are a few main rules of thumb. An upwards sloping yield curve is typically bullish for the economy and stocks, whereas a downwards sloping or inverted yield curve is typically bullish for bonds.

You may be asking yourself why this is. The reasons are actually fairly simple and straightforward. If the curve is steep, meaning the short term rates are low and the long term rates are high it means that banks are lending as they are able to borrow short term from the Fed and charge long term rates to their customers. Obviously when business is good for the banks, they will be lending as much as they can. This in turn spurs new business spending as money is available.

If money is expensive then the economy will have a hard time expanding. If money is expensive for banks then they will not lend very much as they are not making money off of it. If money is cheap then the economy can grow easier as banks will lend and businesses will borrow more to expand and to spend.

Think of bonds and interest rates as a teeter totter where yields are on one side and bonds are on the other. If bonds go down, rates go up. If rates go down, bonds are going up. In a regular inflationary environment this is always the case unless there is a severe credit quality issue.

If this is the case then anytime you can forecast the yield curve to show when the Fed will be lowering rates you can jump on it and go long bonds, typically with little risk. At the same time whenever you see rates being lowered you can wait a while and then go long stocks.

Nothing is perfect and nothing works all the time. Any good global macro investor knows that to have long term success without blowing up you will need to use proper risk control gauges as well as other tools in your analysis. The yield curve is smart but it is not all knowing. - 23226

About the Author:

If you need actionable trading ideas then check out The Macro Trader Itis a weekly global macro trading advisory publication with frequent intra-week updates for time-critical analysis and actionable trading ideas.

Exchange Traded Funds And Why They Are Valuable

By Chris Channing

ETF Trading, or exchange-traded fund, are quickly becoming a better option in investing than what investors are accustomed to. An exchange-traded fund is able to achieve certain benefits in taxing, trading, and overall costs of a transaction thanks to the basic design they follow.

Tax benefit comes as a result in ETF trading, since most capital gains are paid at the end of the length you own the exchange-traded fund. In this method, the taxes that would have previously been paid are still in the fund, earning money. While you may not notice a huge difference with a small investment, large investments will see quite an impact due to this rule.

ETFs are also more flexible than your average stock, as they can be traded outside of the trading hours that other stocks must conform to. ETF trading allows you to trade at anytime of the day, and to lock in at a good price while you would otherwise have to settle for less with index mutual fund trading. This fact benefits both professionals and beginners alike.

You may be thinking that ETFs seem like they are complex- and you would be right. But don't let others tell you that you will have a harder time trading and ETF, since they are traded just like index mutual funds are. Indeed, you can march up to your investment broker's office and ask to start trading in ETFs, and you would be well on your way just like with a regular stock you likely already have in your portfolio.

If you tend to specialize in a certain area of knowledge, such as the real estate industry, you will be glad to know that ETF trading encompasses many subjects. In fact, ETF trading isn't only for stocks- it can be for actual real estate, gold, and other assets that have a sense of liquidity to them. This will broaden the amount of possibilities you have in trading in a market you have done the most research in.

ETF trading is still a risky business, regardless of the clear benefit they offer to a trader. It is still recommended that you obtain the proper investment broker to aid you in the process of learning more about ETF trading and the processes it entails. Published materials such as books can also help you in the quest for taking advantage of ETFs while they are still relatively untapped.

Final Thoughts

You should get more information on exchange-traded funds more for knowledge on the subject, so that you too can get in on the money being made everyday. Talk to your broker for more information on how to get started. - 23226

About the Author:

Learn more on ETF signals and ETF investing strategies.

The Growing Market of Pembroke Pines Real Estate

By James Coglin

Every area of the country has been hit hard by the economic recession and the Pembroke Pines real estate market is no exception. With respect to the size of other cities around the country, Pembroke Pines is relatively small with 146,000 locals. The year 1960 was when the city was founded and is therefore considered to be a young city with respect to the others in the Southern Florida area. The real estate prices in the city are above average even in the wake of the recession. If you are a resident of Pembroke Pines then you will see an expansion in population as well as real estate.

Pembroke Pines real estate is much higher than the national average. Obtaining an average for the real estate market is difficult because of how the economy affects each area differently. Although, a range of $175,000 and $225,000 can be arrived at using the national averages. What's amazing is that the Pembroke Pines real estate goes for $385,000! This is roughly double the national average. The real estate in Pembroke Pines consists of single family homes, townhomes, condos, as well as commercial real estate and land.

Consumers that are looking for Pembroke Pines real estate should target Durange Estates, Grand Palms, Breakers Estates, Chapel Trail, Victoria Lakes, and Panche. The Pembroke Pines real estate market is doing decent and consumers that are planning on moving to the area will be impressed by the city.

Overall, the Pembroke Pines real estate market is stable which allows for consumers to have fewer worries. But even with the market somewhat stabilized, the recession has caused foreclosures to increase. While this is no surprise, consumers in the area should not worry as the growth of commercial real estate is still strong. Furthermore, the commercial real estate has continued to grow. This has allowed for the economy to grow in the city. This has caused for the Pembroke Pines real estate market to start growing.

If you are a real estate investor or a consumer looking for property you will find it profitable to invest in the area as the recent foreclosures have caused some properties to reduce in price. This strong trend is expected to continue and real estate investors should look hard at the opportunities that have presented themselves. If you are an investor seeking an opportunity then you may want to check out the Pembroke Pines real estate market.

Further evidence supports the fact that the city will continue to grow both in size and real estate market due to its location. It is in great demand as it is only 15 miles from both Miami and Fort Lauderdale. Many people want to live in the Miami area, but they do not want to live in downtown. This in turn makes Pembroke Pines to be highly desirable since it is smaller but still a short drive to the night life. And being the largest city with respect to land size in the area, there's plenty of room to expand. So if you are considering investing in the Miami area, then be sure to check out the Pembroke Pines real estate market. - 23226

About the Author:

James Coglin is a realtor in the Miami area and has 25 years experience. Come visit his website Pembroke Pines Real Estate that is updated frequently and get more real estate information about Pembroke Pines homes before making any major decisions.

Using Interest Rate Differentials as Fundamental Trading Strategy

By Ahmad Hassam

As a forex trader, you should know that interest rates are an integral part of investment decisions and can drive the currency markets as well as the stock markets either direction. Federal Open Market Committee rate decisions are the second largest currency market moving release behind the unemployment figures.

The impact of interest rate changes not only have short term consequences but also have long term consequences on forex markets. One Central Banks interest rate change decision can affect more than a single currency pair in the interrelated currency markets.

In forex trading, an interest rate differential is the difference between the base currency interest rate and the quoted currency interest rate. In the currency pair, EUR/USD, EUR is the base currency and USD is the quoted or counter currency. The interest rate differential for the EUR/USD pair will be the difference between the Euro interest rate and the USD interest rate.

Understanding the relationship between the interest rate differentials and the currency pairs can be very profitable for you as a forex trader. In addition to the Central Banks overnight interest rate decisions, expected future overnight rates as well the expected timing for the interest rate changes can be crucial to the currency pair movements.

The reason why this is profitable is that international investors like big banks, corporations, hedge funds and institutional investors are yield seekers. They actively keep on shifting their funds from the low yield assets to high yield assets.

Interest rate differentials are considered to be the leading indicators for currency prices. LIBOR and the 10 year bond yields are usually used as leading indicators of currency movements.

Lets use an example to make it clear. Suppose the Australian 10 year government bond yield is 5.25%. The US 10 year government bond yield is 1.75%. The yield spread between AUD and USD would be 350 basis points in favor of the AUD.

Suppose the Australian government raised its interest rate by 25 basis points. The Australian 10-year government bond yield would also appreciate to 5.50%. Now, the new yield spread is 375 basis points in favor of the Australian Dollar (AUD). The AUD will also be expected to appreciate against USD overtime.

The general rule of thumb is that when a yield spread increases in favor of a certain currency that currency is expected to appreciate against other currencies. This information should be very important for your trading. Use the data available on Bloomberg to keep track of currencies in the currency pairs that you trade. - 23226

About the Author:

Mr. Ahmad Hassam is a Harvard University Graduate. He is interested in day trading and swing trading stocks and currencies. Learn Forex Nitty Gritty. Read about Trend Forex System. Try Netpicks Forex Signal Service.

How do Stock Prices Change?

By Robbin Carols

If you purchase stocks, there are two main ways you can make money from the purchase. First of all, you can be paid dividends. When a corporation makes a profit, they may decide to pay some of it as dividends to their shareholder such as $1 a year per share, but this isn't guaranteed.

Capital gains are another way to profit from stock purchases. You buy the stock at one price and at a future time, whether it's in an hour or in 20 years, you sell it for a higher price. After you take the difference, the amount you sold it for over the amount you paid is a capital gain.

When someone buys shares of stock, they do so in hopes of profiting through capital gains. High dividend paying stocks are often sought after by retirees who are looking for a stable source of income.

In order to make capital gains, the stock price has to go up. The stock price can go up or down. It varies from day to day. How can you know it will go up and how exactly does it change?

Stock prices are affected just as the price of anything else changes. It is purely economics. Try to think back to your high school economics class when you learned about supply and demand.

An increase in supply with the same demand will decrease the price. An increase in demand with the same supply increases the price. The price changes depending on whether and how supply and demand change.

With stocks, if a lot of people want to buy a particular stock and not enough people are selling, they will have to raise the price to accommodate for it. If there are more people looking to sell than people willing to buy, they will need to decrease the price to get people to buy.

Once you understand supply and demand, you can understand how to make capital gains. You should try to purchase stocks that you feel will be a very popular buy in the future. - 23226

About the Author:

How do stock prices change? Find the answer to this question and find out who issues stocks.