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Sunday, August 23, 2009

US Dollar Index Explained

By Ahmad Hassam

The US Dollar Index Futures Contracts are traded on the New York Board of Trade at Finex and at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). The US Dollar Index is widely quoted in the press and on quote services and is used by traders to get the big picture of the overall trend of the dollar.

The US Dollar Index is similar to the Feds Dollar Index which is a trade weighted index. The Federal Reserve Board had introduced the US Dollar Index in 2003. The index is the result of the Smithsonian Agreement that had replaced the Bretton Woods Agreement. The Fed gives value to each individual currency in the index based on how much it trades with the US.

However, the value of US Dollar Index and the Feds Dollar Index is different and it should not be confused with one another. The futures contract expires on March, June, September and December. The minimum tick on the US Dollar Index is 0.1 and equals $10.

Delivery is physical and means that you receive dollars based on the value of the index. Delivery is made on the second business day during the month of the expiring contract prior to the third Wednesday. The overall value of the futures contract on the index is 1,000 times the value of the index in dollars. Suppose the value of the index is 80. Its value in dollars will be $ 8,000.

Delivery day of the US Dollar Index Futures Contract is the third Wednesday of the contract month. No trading limits are placed on the US Dollar Index. Trading hours are from 8.05 AM to 3:00 PM. There is overnight trading also from 7 PM to 10 PM.

The US Dollar Index was modified at the inception of the Euro. It is weighted in a way thats similar to the Feds trade weighted index as follows: Euro 57.6%, Japanese Yen 13.6%, Great Britain Pound 11.9%, Canadian Dollar 9.1%, Swedish Krona 4.2% and Swiss Franc 3.6%. The US Dollar Index is best used as an indicator of trends in the currency markets.

However, you must keep this in your mind that as compared to trading currencies, the US Dollar Index is not a good trading vehicle. The best way to trade the index is by using the currency mutual funds. There are a few good currency mutual funds that you can find. You should know that one of the secrets of knowing trading success is understanding what kind of personality you have. You should know whether you are weak nerved or strong nerved.

If you are weak nerved than spot forex market is not for you! Suppose you fear that the market will move against you. You are afraid of taking a bathroom break or even a coffee for that matter. You cant even blink your eye afraid that you will end up with a margin call. In such a case you need to invest in currency mutual funds based on US Dollar Index and relax.

By trading these currency mutual funds you are taking away the big part of the risk involved in trading currencies. If you check the dollar index a few times during the day, then you have a pretty good idea as to how your fund is going to close at the end of the day. - 23226

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The Fundamentals of Dealing with Foreign Exchange Information

By Brad Morgan

Knowing the ABC's of forex is a precursor for making money in the foreign exchange market. Knowledge of the basics of technical analysis is not enough because the foreign exchange markets are operating on more than the mathematical components. Failure to do so could mean cause misjudgement at a critical point.

There are major impacts wielded by news reports both global and local on the currency market. While finance related news without a doubt yields the greatest effect, other non-finance but major events have their own impact too. They are possibly anticipated or come spontaneously .

A tornado or an act of terrorism are cases in point as they are unforeseen but could severely influence the market prices. In such events, stop-losses are just about the only solution you would have.

Expected events are like passing out the World Expo venue to a country. Such an event could perhaps affect quite positively the host country's currency investment outlook.

In the same breath, the losing competitors could possibly experience an inverse effect on their currency. Thus knowing the timeline for such events and the entities concerned is vital .

Daily status and analysis about the financial sector have similar effects. Others released less often are economic indicators such as GDP, interest rates and inflation.

An excellent trader shouldn't forget that he always trades on two currencies. While trading in your native currency allows for accessibility to key economic data, it also allows one to ignore the importance of events and data in the second currency.

Americans in particular, are prone to this due to the domination by the US currency as far as foreign exchange intelligence is concerned. This is further magnified when a secondary currency is traded against the dollar. Making sure that your data is always two sided is the proactive step you can make to escape this.

New traders must also be very aware of these other facets of basic analysis in the foreign exchange scene. It would be prudent for the newbie trader to separate from the market once there is talk about a major broadcast in the air.

A method based on fundamentals may take form as you become knowledgeable in the market. But more than anything else familiarity with the forex fundamentals is paramount . - 23226

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Improve Your Trade Accuracy Without Using A Stock Screener

By Lance Jepsen

What I'm about to show you has nothing to do with a stock screener. This one little secret can totally improve your trading accuracy in any market.

It almost seems to good to be true, but in fact it is true. I learned this secret from a retired institutional trader years ago and it still works today! I have managed to increase my trade accuracy to 80% after learning this simple rule. I directly make money from this secret every week. Not only that, but YOU can duplicate what I have done and make money every week. I will show you exactly what to do in the next 30 seconds.

No doubt you have heard the phrase "two minds can think better than just one". I have a new phrase for you as it applies to this trading secret: "4 Institutional Minds Can Produce What 90,000,000 Unprofessional Brains Can't"

That's right. There are an estimated 90 million Americans who are invested in the stock market and not one of them figured out the secret I'm about to tell you. Why? Because they don't have the same tools that the Institutional traders have.

Weekend Effect: Trading Activity is Lower On Friday and Monday and Returns Are Negative On Monday

Way back in 1988, a genius called Miller proved that returns are usually negative on any given Monday. Miller said that this anomaly might just be the result of small investor trading activity. In another study done two years later, Lakonishok and Maberly (1990) and Abraham and Ikenberry (1994) used odd-lot trading as a measurement for what smaller, non-institutional investors were doing and found evidence that supported the Miller hypothesis.

Trading activity is less on Friday for large-lot trades which is why the volume tends to be lower on this day. So institutional traders will zero out their trades on Thursday or Friday. Institutional traders don't like going into the weekend news cycle with any open positions.

Trading is lower on Monday for large-lot trades. Also, small traders have more sell orders on Monday morning compared to other days of the week. If small-size trades reflect individual investor activity and large-size trades reflect institutional investors then both types of investors play a role in the negative return on Monday. The individual traders directly contribute through their trading and institutional traders indirectly contribute through their withdrawal of liquidity on the proceeding Thursday or Friday. Institutions indirectly contribute by their absence on Friday and Monday, which reduces liquidity in the market.

Your odds of making money on your trades are better on Tuesday through Thursday. You will discover your trading accuracy greatly improves when you go long a stock on Tuesday and sell on Thursday.

Because markets have a tendency to dip on early Monday trading, don't get stopped out of your trade too quickly based on Monday trading activity. Monday's have the highest occurrence of head fakes to the downside. - 23226

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What to Learn As a Forex Currency Trading Beginner

By Jane MacRae

If you are a Forex currency trading beginner, your first order of business is to get yourself informed. Forex trading can truly be highly profitably. However, without knowing its essentials, you will not earn one single dollar from it and may even lose your investment.

The Forex market is one of the biggest financial investment market in the world. Many think that the stock market is huge, but it can not quite measure up the size of the Forex market. Even if we add the futures market to the stock market, the Forex market would still have a bigger amount of money being traded every day.

In the past, the market was a playing field only for the big shots who could present millions of dollars before they were allowed to trade. Today, the presence of online trading companies has opened the FOREX market to those who do not have millions but could afford to dish out thousands of dollars as beginner traders.

In its simplicity, Forex trading is to buy and sell different currencies in the world. You buy one currency while sell another. As such, currency trading always involves pairs, and quotes of currencies also come in one currency against another. The major players include the U.S. dollar and the Canadian dollar (USD/CAD), the Euro and the U.S. dollar (EUR/USD), the U.S. dollar and the yen (USD/JPY) and the Australian dollar and the U.S. dollar (AUD/USD).

Forex trading also has a number of advantages compared to other types of financial investment. The transactions are fast because everything is electronic. You also are assured that there are often people who would want to trade with you. This is simply because there are so many people who are trading everyday and every hour of the day. You can buy and sell at anytime whenever you want to.

One other attractive aspect of currency trading is leverage. Your leverage capabilities are simply huge with a nearly unbelievable ratio of 200:1. With very minimal initial cash you can already manage a large amount of currency. This is probably the main reason why the market is quite attractive for those who want to increase their earnings impressively.

It is wrong, however, to think that you can immediately get rich in Forex trading. People can lose too in currency trading. Those who do are often those who act impulsively with the hopes of getting rich instantaneously. If you do not take the time to learn the inner wheels of Forex trading and the technical aspects of leveraging, then you could lose everything you have put into currency trading.

For any Forex currency trading beginner, the best way to dive into this game is to get well-prepared in terms of knowledge, practice, budget and psychology. If you are just an average player, you can pick an online company who offers virtual trading with imaginary currencies without any substantial cost or loss on your part. So, position yourself as a beginner and start by playing small, you can improve quite quickly and steadily. - 23226

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The Forex Market During This Recession

By Michael Fredericks

What effect is the current continuing economic downturn having on the Forex market? Forex predictions have on the overall whole been accurate. The market for currency is showing stability, in terms of trade as well as volume.

Although nothing is truly stable at the moment. Being in the market means being prepared for anything. Forex is susceptible if there are big changes, and were nervous as to whether or not we can handle.

But anyone who is familiar with the Forex market knows we are a competition zero sum game. In other words, you get back what you put into it.

Of course no one could predict the world-wide recession, or that the US dollar would lose so much worth after the market crash in September 2008. True, Forex market is affected by the occurrences to other markets, but in no means are we helpless.

Last year saw a succession of collapse similar to dominos. The value of the dollar was not fluctuating. The market gave no hint that the large firms and banks on The Street would soon be revealed as so many naked emperors. When all was revealed, overseas investors had grave doubts about any investment on any timeline, now or going forward, and the heavy downward skidding began.

When asking where to turn next for profit, people point towards the Asian market, where their sheer size and production will become the necessity of the world. Investors will surely turn their gaze towards these foreign markets, leading to possible controversy over safety.

Other people ask if the Swiss currency will improve, and if they should be buying from them now because the technical recession is far from over.

It might be a good time to put your energy into the region where demand tends to remain high regardless of what else is going on globally. Rising prices in Asia represent opportunities in the currency markets. Some might see this as a time to re-align, seek change, and develop a new outlook as a boost to Forex market prediction and actions. - 23226

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