What Impacts the Price of a Stock? How Useful is Historical Data?

By Marv Doniger

There are a myriad of factors that are commonly used by investors to evaluate potential stock investments. These investment opportunities are often identified through the use of the numerous stock screeners that are readily available to investors. Common searches seek to identify companies that have a low Price Earnings, Price to Book Value, or Price to Cash Flow Ratio; high Dividend Yields; high Returns on Assets, Invested Capital, or Earnings; low Debt to Equity; and high Cash balances. In fact there are pre-defined stock screeners such as the Contrarian Strategy, Dogs of the Dow, Momentum Stocks, New 52-Week Highs, etc. that can be used to identify stocks in which to invest. The implicit assumption in using stock screeners is that there is a relationship between this data and the future performance of a stock. Should this assumption be valid then all one would have to do is run his/her magic screener and buy those stocks with his/her favorite criteria such as low Price Earnings Ratio and high Dividend Yield. In order to validate the premise that the data obtained from stock screeners influences the price of a company's stock, the change in the price of the Dow 30 Industrial stocks from 1999 to 2009 was compared to changes in the Returns they generated, their Financial Condition and Performance over that same time period. Returns included Returns on Equity, Invested Capital and Assets as well as Dividends paid to investors. Financial Condition included Current Ratio, Debt to Equity Ratio, along with Interest Coverage and Dividend Coverage. Performance included Sales, Earnings, Book Value and Cash Flow trends. A correlation analysis was conducted to determine the relationship of the price of each of the companies comprising the Dow Industrials and these factors. The hypothesis being that there was a statistically valid relationship between these factors.

As the following chart shows, dividends had a statistically significant impact on the change in the price of the stock of Exxon Mobil, Hewlett-Packard, Merck, and Verizon. It had a moderate impact on the price of the stock of Alcoa, Bank of America, DuPont, General Electric and JP Morgan Chase. Earnings had a strong impact on the price of Citigroup's and Exxon Mobil's stock. The stock price of Caterpillar, Chevron, Johnson & Johnson, McDonalds, Proctor & Gamble, and United Technologies was moderately impacted by earnings. Price changes in the stock of Exxon Mobil were statistically significantly impacted by its Dividends, Cash, Earnings, Book Value and Cash Flow and moderately impacted by its Return on Invested Capital, Dividend Coverage and Sales. Another company whose price movement could be partially explained by change in these factors is Caterpillar. There were moderately statistically significant relationships between its price and its Returns on Equity, Investment and Assets; its Interest and Dividend Coverage; as well as its Earnings and Cash Flow. Perhaps one of the most astonishing results is that there were no statistically meaningful relationships between the changes in the price of the stocks of 3M, American Express, AT&T, Boeing, Intel, IBM, Kraft, Microsoft, Pfizer, Coca-Cola, Home Depot, and Wal-Mart and the measures of Returns, Financial Condition, and Performance used in the analysis. To put it another way, the price movement of 40 percent of the Dow Industrials bore no statistically meaningful relationship to changes in these factors.

FACTORS AFFECTING STOCK PRICE of DOW 30 INDUSTRIALS RETURNS FINANCIAL CONDITION PERFORMANCE Dow 30 Components Company Equity Invested Capital Assets Dividends Current Ratio Debt to Equity Interest Coverage Dividend Coverage Cash Sales Earnings Book Value Cash Flow 3m Co Alcoa Inc ● American Express Company, AT&T Inc. Bank of America Corporation ● Boeing Co., Caterpillar Inc. ● ● ● ● ● ● ● Chevron Corp ●● ● ● ●● ● Citigroup, Inc. ●● ● E.I. du Pont de Nemours and Co ● Exxon Mobil Corp ● ●● ● ●● ● ●● ●● ●● General Electric Company ● General Motors Corporation ● Hewlett-Packard Co. ●● ● Intel Corporation International Business Machines Johnson & Johnson ● ● ● JP Morgan & Chase & Co ● Kraft Foods Inc. McDonald's Corporation ● ● Merck & Co., Inc. ●● Microsoft Corporation, Pfizer Inc, The Coca-Cola Company, The Home Depot, Inc. The Procter & Gamble Company ● ● ● ●● United Technologies Corporation ● ● ● Verizon Communications ●● Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. Impact ● Moderate ●● Significant Data Standard & Poor's

Based on the previous examination of the relationships between the price of the Dow Industrials stocks and certain measurements of their historical data, it should be apparent that stock screeners, in and of themselves, are not sufficient tools to use in selecting potential stock investments. Even if there were statistically significant relationships between the historical price movement and the data used in the stock screener, it does not mean that those relationships would continue in the future. Wall Street constantly warns that past performance is not indicative of future results, yet investors search the past to divine the future. It is like driving in traffic by looking through the rear view mirror and missing the collision ahead that is about to happen. As events of the past eighteen months have proven, highly improbable events can occur and inflict unforeseen casualties on investors. Since equity markets are supposedly discounting future events, investors should look through the windshield to see what is ahead of them and use the rear view mirror to see if the vehicle behind them has any relevance to their ultimate destination.

Marvin Doniger, Managing Partner of Doniger & Associates, is the author of A Common Sense Road Map to Uncommon Wealth, which is a treatise on managing careers and finances. His perspectives have been developed from his lifelong study of investing, his actual experiences as a registered representative, an individual investor, as well as from working for large companies in industry and as a management consultant to Fortune 500 companies. He is a leader in his industry. - 23226

About the Author:

Mr. Doniger received a Masters in Business Administration from Columbia University Graduate School of Business and a Bachelor of Science Degree in Mechanical Engineering from Tufts University. He has taught undergraduate and graduate level courses in production control, inventory management, information technology and finance at Fitchburg State College and Webster University. CONTACT INFORMATION: Tel: 949-661-5456 Email: Marv@DonigerAssociates.com www.donigerassociates.com

Easy Financing for Rental Properties

By David McCammon

Lots of people are now finding that rental property can be an excellent way to create wealth. If you are considering getting involved in rental property investing, it is a good idea to educate yourself as much as possible. First, you need to find out what it takes to become qualified to purchase investment property because it is actually somewhat different than becoming qualified to purchase a normal home.

A major reason for this is the fact that a significant number of investors either walked away from properties or declared bankruptcy during the early 1990s. While you should certainly not be punished for someone elses problems, neither do lenders want to be left holding investment properties. Therefore, it is important to understand that the requirements for being approved for a mortgage on rental properties are somewhat different from what you are probably used to.

A home can often be purchased with a minimum down payment, especially if you are a first-time home buyer this is often not the case with rental property. Many who loan money require a minimum down payment of 15%.

Fortunately there are many different sources you can tap into for possible financing. These options include: Mortgage broker Local savings and loan or bank Private lender FHA; which stands for Federal Housing Association.

It matters not which option you choose, you will find that most lenders will want to be assured that you will have a sufficient amount of rental income in order to cover not only the mortgage payment but also other expenses such as insurance, taxes and maintenance. Depending on the amount of income that will be provided from the property, some lenders sometimes actually require a larger down payment.

Of course there are many different types of loans which you can use to finance the purchase of a rental property. One option would be a residential loan. This type of loan can be used to purchase from one to four units. The exact options that are open to you often depend on whether or not the property will be occupied immediately.

Another popular option is a commercial loan. This is an option when the property is five units or more or it will be non-owner occupied. Due to the fact that it is a commercial loan, it is often far different from a residential loan in regards to terms and requirements. One of the main differences between a commercial loan and a residential loan is the fact that fees and rates are frequently higher this kind of a loan.

A larger down payment is also often required. The down payment on a commercial loan typically runs between 25% and 35%. While there are some lenders who may be willing to agree to a higher loan to value ratio; the requirements for qualifying for such loans are usually more stringent.

The owner will also carefully examine the ability of the property to generate a cash flow that will allow you to repay your loan. As a result, the lender will typically examine the property to ensure it can provide an income that will not only allow you to cover the mortgage payments and other expenses but also provide enough of a cash flow that you will have additional income to place into other places.

Another option is private party lending for many prospective investors. One option would be to approach the current owner about seller financing. With this option the owner carries back the loan for a down payment and fair interest rate. You may find that you can save lending fees with the options.

Another option would be what is known as a hard-money loan. This is a type of short-term financing where a third-party makes a loan to assist the investor with purchasing the property. Generally, this type of loan involves a higher interest rate due to the fact that the buyer has poor credit or because the property is in disrepair and requires extensive renovation.

FHA programs are often offered through traditional lenders. Keep in mind; however, that FHA does not actually lend money. They do provide insurance for lenders; offering numerous loan programs. Regardless of which financing tool you choose, remember that there is always the option to refinance at some later point in order to obtain a better terms. - 23226

About the Author:

If the thought of profiting greatly in the entire world of real estate investing stimulates you, then you should download Davids free report and Free Real Estate Course. To learn the safest and best profitable methods visit Davids website Real Estate Investing.

S&P Futures Explained (Part II)

By Ahmad Hassam

S&P futures contracts are another example of how 24 hours a day trading enables traders to respond to economic news releases in pre-market and after-market sessions. Regular trading hours for S&P futures contracts are from 8:30 A.M to 3:15 PM. S&P futures contracts are valued in ticks worth 0.1 index points or $25.

The evening session continues on the Globex until 8:15 AM overnight. It starts at 3:30 PM (15 minutes after the close at 3.15 PM). Individual S&P futures contract holders are limited to no more than 20,000 net long or short contracts at any one time.

If the index experiences major declines or increases beyond certain limits, a procedure is set in place to halt trading. If these price limits are crossed, circuit breakers are triggered. A price limit is how far an S&P futures contract can rise or fall in a single trading session. The limits are set on quarterly basis.

Collar Rule: The collar rule limits the traders from piling buy or sell orders in an attempt to exaggerate the gains or losses of the market. It addresses price swings related to program trades that move the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) more than 2% by requiring index arbitrage orders, or orders that bet on the spread between the futures and the cash of stock indexes to be stabilizing. What the collar rule does is limit the chance of huge gains or losses as a result of futures trading.

Its time to learn how an S&P futures contract ticks once you have mastered futures basics such as the performance bond margins, the mark to market requirements and the account specifics. Especially during slow seasons in the stock market such as summer, fall and around the winter holidays, overnight or pre-market trading can be thin and dangerous.

CMEs most actively traded contracts are Eurodollar futures and S&P futures including the E-minis. Hundreds of futures contracts trade on the federally regulated futures exchanges in the United States. Each of these exchanges trade contract that are somewhat unique to it.

E-mini S&P Futures contracts: The E-mini S&P futures contracts (ES) are among the most popular stock index futures contract because they enable you to trade the markets trend with only one fifth of the requirement. The E-mini S&P futures contracts (ES) are the favorites of the day traders because of its high intraday price volatility and major price swings on a daily basis.

One tick on E-min S&P futures contract is equal to 0.25 of the index point or $12.50. The value of the E-mini S&P futures contract is $50 times the value of the S&P 500 stock index. The E-mini S&P futures contract can be very volatile and can move even more aggressively during times of extreme market volatility. - 23226

About the Author:

Mr. Ahmad Hassam has done Masters from Harvard University. He is interested in day trading futures and currencies. Trade Dow Futures and S&P Futures!

Jumpstart to Learn Forex Trading

By Zita Von Snyder

Learn Forex Trading and stay ahead of the game, because in the world of cut-throat business, it pays to be prepared. When trading forex it pays to know who the players are, know the market conditions and the risks involved. Be aware of what you are looking at: the currency you are trading, the factors that affect the value of the currency you are trading, your trading strategy and current market trends. You can be ahead of the curve if you take the time to learn forex trading.

To learn forex trading, you should consider a forex trading course. There are a couple of benefits to learning forex trading with a forex course:

Why do you need a forex trading course? To really learn forex you need to understand charting, forex terminology, and some of the common processes pertaining to forex trading. A forex trading course will provide all of this and more so you can learn forex.

The world of forex demands discipline, the ability to move quickly and the knowledge of the risks involved. To learn forex you need to learn to manage the stress and emotions that can come along with forex trading. A good forex trading course teaches these principles.

A good forex trading course should include the following features so you can best learn forex trading:

*Basics- the course should define and discuss some of the basic terms used in forex trading. It should include such terms as margins, types of orders, how to leverage trades as well as a basic overview of charting and indicators.

*Analysis-the forex trading course should teach you how to do both technical and fundamental analysis and which tools or software to use and which to avoid. This will help you minimize your risks and maximize your profits.

*Values-A very important attribute of trading is the ability to manage not only your money but the emotions or psychology of forex trading. To learn forex trading a trader should develop good values such as discipline, patience and commitment.

Along with this outline of a good forex trading course you should also be able to gain experience of real time trading. When choosing a forex trading course it should also include either a demo account, live conference rooms or boards as well as some one-on-one feedback and discussion forums. You can learn forex trading with the right forex trading course.

A forex trading course is a great way to jump-start learning forex trading. If you invest in a good trading course, learn the basics, study the market, learn how to analyze the fluctuations in the market, and manage the psychology of trading you can be on the road to success. Being well equipped will lead to higher profits as well as the ability to successfully learn forex trading. - 23226

About the Author:

Zita Von Snyder, a forex trader and financial advisor for over a decade, has provided some helpful hints to Learn Forex Trading. Zita offers tips on finding a good Forex Trading Course as well as the benefits it provides.

Forex Trading Strategies for the Best Trading Results

By Steve Maenshel

Forex trading strategies are essential for a trader. A trader should know when to be Bullish or to be Bearish. Forex trading strategies help you analyze the market and to take the last step of your analysis - to buy or sell a contract. This is the most complicated part of the whole process. Determining the time of the opening and closing of positions should be as accurate as possible.

The decision often must be taken within a few minutes or hours, using various tools of technical analysis.

Main Forex trading strategies are:

1. Support and Resistance

Forex trading strategies include tracking the Support and Resistance levels. Break of the Resistance can become a signal for opening a long position (Buy), which can then be protected by a stop-loss order. You can place the stop-loss a little under the level of a break, which will now become the level of Support. Prices ascending up to the Resistance in a generally declining trend, as well as prices declining to the Support with a generally ascending trend can be an indication to open new positions.

2. Intersection of the trend lines

Looking for the price to cross the trend line is yet another one of common Forex trading strategies. Prices crossing the lines of the trend allow a trader to enter the market or to exit the market early enough, especially when the crossing has occurred on a "proven" trend-line. However, do not forget the other indicators of technical analysis. When using the trend line as the level of Support and Resistance, long positions (Buy) should be opened on the fall of prices to the level of an upward trend, and short positions (Sell) should be opened with the rise in prices to the level of a descending trend-line.

3. Scanning the breaks

Forex trading strategies usually include 3 main options to trade in the break:

- Open the position prior to an anticipated break;

- Manage to enter the market at the moment of the break;

- Wait for the inevitable roll-back after the break, because in the market after a break, there is usually a correction.

There is also a 4th option for Forex trading strategies based on break - open position in each of the phases described above. One position - before a possible break, second position - immediately after this break and the third position should be traded in the hope of the expected price correction, which is likely to happen.

4. Trading with positions of various time frames

1). Long-term holding of open positions ranging from a few days to several months, these types of positions are maximally effective in the emerging trends and the least effective at the time of flat trends. When working on long-term positions, fundamental analysis is just as important as technical analysis. This is one of the moderately safe Forex trading strategies.

2). Holding a position of a medium length - a few days (the safest of the Forex trading strategies, based on time-frames). It is also desirable to ensure yourself by looking at shorter trends. Analysis of the medium length position is more complex, but such positions are much more stable for profit. Of course you need to choose the right moment to open / close a position. Again, these positions require the use of both - technical and fundamental analysis.

3). Short-term positions, lasting from several minutes to several hours. Pluses: there is no risk of fundamental news and the changes in prices at the time of your absence. Disadvantages: high risk of adverse movements in prices requires constant monitoring and concentration throughout the day. Basically, if a trader uses the data on a number of sellers and buyers in the market, that data will give the trader the needed information about where the market seems to go. Super-short-term trading could also be used with breaks and rollbacks. Super-short-term trading is highly risky, and thus it better suits professional traders and market-makers. This is the least safe Forex trading strategies.

Forex trading strategies based on technical analysis indicators will help you achieve the best results. Forex trading strategies are especially useful for choosing the right time to enter and exit the trades. - 23226

About the Author:

Author Steve Maenshel has been a professional trader for ten years. He can help you understand forex trading strategies. For more forex trading information, visit his forex resource center.